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Martingale Strategy Calculator

Simulate Martingale and Anti-Martingale strategies for trading and betting. Understand capital requirements, risk of ruin, position sizing implications, and expected outcomes with Monte Carlo simulations.

Martingale systems increase bet size after losses or wins. They cannot overcome a negative expected value and carry a high risk of ruin. This tool is for educational simulation only, not gambling advice.

Strategy inputs

$
$

Average final balance

$1,001.25

Across 10,000 simulations

Average rounds played

85

Mean session length before stop

Ruin probability

27.7%

2,773 busted sessions

Success rate

66.5%

6,652 sessions above bankroll

Average drawdown

$529.24

Peak-to-trough balance drop

Simulations won

6,652 / 10,000

Final balance greater than starting bankroll

Bet progression (losing streak)

StepBet amountCumulative costDescription
0$10.00$0.00After 0 losses
1$20.00$20.00After 1 loss
2$40.00$120.00After 2 losses
3$80.00$560.00After 3 losses
4$160.00$2,400.00After 4 losses
5$320.00$9,920.00After 5 losses
6$640.00$40,320.00After 6 losses
7$1,280.00$162,560.00After 7 losses
8$2,560.00$652,800.00After 8 losses
9$5,120.00$2,616,320.00After 9 losses
10$10,240.00$10,475,520.00After 10 losses
11$20,480.00$41,922,560.00After 11 losses
12$40,960.00$167,731,200.00After 12 losses
13$81,920.00$671,006,720.00After 13 losses
14$163,840.00$2,684,190,720.00After 14 losses
15$327,680.00$10,737,090,560.00After 15 losses
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What is the Martingale betting system?

The Martingale system is a progressive staking strategy that doubles the bet after each loss so that one eventual win recovers prior losses plus a profit equal to the original stake. The Anti-Martingale variant doubles after wins instead, attempting to ride hot streaks while limiting loss sequences to the base bet size. Both approaches appear in casino folklore, short-term trading experiments, and risk education.

No staking pattern changes the mathematical expected value of a negative-edge game. Over many trials, house margin and table limits dominate outcomes. Use this simulator to visualize bet progression and ruin probability, not as a wagering plan. Compare sustainable position sizing with the Kelly Criterion calculator or model scenario-weighted returns with the expected return calculator. To stress-test fixed win-rate and risk-reward assumptions with randomized trade sequences, try the trading simulator.

Classic Martingale progression

After each loss, the next bet doubles until a win occurs. Starting with a $10 base bet, the sequence of required wagers is $10, $20, $40, $80, and so on. Cumulative capital at risk grows exponentially, which is why modest losing streaks can exhaust a finite bankroll.

Bet after n losses=B0×2n\text{Bet after } n \text{ losses} = B_0 \times 2^n

Anti-Martingale progression

Anti-Martingale doubles the stake after each win and resets to the base bet after a loss. Wins compound exposure during streaks, but a single loss returns risk to the initial level. This can reduce deep drawdowns compared with classic Martingale while still failing to create positive expected value on unfair games.

Monte Carlo simulation and risk of ruin

This tool runs thousands of independent sessions with your win probability, payout multiplier, bankroll, and round cap. Each session tracks balance, rounds played, peak drawdown, and whether the bankroll hits zero. Ruin probability is the share of simulations that go bust. Even near-fair 50/50 even-money bets produce meaningful ruin rates once bet doubling meets a finite bankroll.

Frequently asked questions

Can Martingale guarantee a profit?
No. A single extended losing streak or table maximum bet prevents recovery. Expected value remains negative whenever the underlying game has a house edge or fees.
What win probability should I enter for roulette red/black?
European single-zero wheels pay even money on color bets with 18 winning pockets out of 37, about 48.65%. American double-zero wheels drop that to roughly 47.37%.
Why does success rate differ from ruin probability?
Success rate counts sessions ending above the starting bankroll, which can happen without ruin if the session stops early after a profitable run. Ruin probability counts only sessions that hit zero balance.
Is this tool suitable for live trading or gambling?
No. It is an educational Monte Carlo model. Real markets include fees, slippage, correlation, and psychological constraints not captured here. Never risk capital you cannot afford to lose.

Resources and references

The formulas and methods in this calculator were checked against these independent sources.